The predictable surprise of a looming "bread-borne" crisis.
The relationship between citizens, bread, and governments' economic policies is one that needs to be traded very carefully.
The effects of miscalculated economic policies on BREAD are a risk whose impact on citizens and governments seems to remain underestimated.
The Gen Z protests in Kenya might have started as fury against taxes on bread, but it is slowly becoming what I will coin "bread-borne" crisis.
From a risk analysis angle, I provide a scenario to help forecast what is possibly in the horizon and how to prepare or mitigate.
Beyond taxes on bread, the objectives of protests appear to be curving towards the need for accountability and transparency to protect the future of citizens at large. The key questions seem to be around "government debts" and how they influence local taxation policies are currently the limelight.
Citizens at large are calling for leadership accountability to address economic policies that are considered punitive - making them more uncertain about their daily bread.
Citizens are likely to roll back and request for clarity on taxes - not simply compliance. Citizens are likely to seek a better understanding of the role of taxes and how decisions on taxes are made. Citizens are seeking more engagement, transparency, and accounting of their taxes.
Whereas, the need to pay Government debt is a noble cause, it is also a very slippery trajectory to the crisis - if this is the main reason for new taxes or tax reforms. This is because the next series of questions await : Why do we have such huge debts? HOW much do we actually owe? From WHO? WHY? and WHAT are the terms?
Depending on the answer, the next accountability querries would be around provision of evidence of what has been done with the monies received from these loans. With vast availability of data and technological tools to process data, citizens will do the maths and they will want the books of accounts to reconcile well.
The centre of this unfolding crisis might be Kenya for now, but it has both regional and global perspectives. Once the questions on HOW, WHAT, WHEN, WHO, WHY debts, starts to get answered. The quality of the answers or the kind of response given, will determine the trajectory.
There doesn't seem to be an easy end to this. To withstand this crisis, leaders will have to be vigillant in how to respond to this overwhelming demands. Leaders who will survive this might have to be receptive to and able to drive change, agile, and ready for socially-driven transformation.
The bread borne crisis is a "predictable surprise." One needs to do a simple research on the effects of recent government policies in the region that affected the price of bread, to predict what is looming.
